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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or just the most shocking shock.

But the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers rising together. Under an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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